Ratings published by independent rating agencies are a key prerequisite for efficient and flexible access to the capital market. They assist debt capital market investors in evaluating the risk situation of companies and their financial instruments.
|Corporate Rating||Standard & Poor's||Moody's|
Latest Update Standard & Poor's
June 2020 – Standard & Poor's lowers its long-term corporate credit rating to "CCC+" from "B-" with negative outlook.
S&P expect a steeper contraction in demand for international tourism in 2020, and a slower recovery in 2021 than previously anticipated. Therefore S&P has lowered their global economic forecasts for 2020 and 2021 to reflect the initial extension of lockdowns in major European economies, and a likely slower recovery. Even as many global economies begin a staged reopening of businesses and leisure activities, travel, particularly international, is still one of the worst affected sectors. In S&P’s view, demand for leisure flights to TUI's main destinations in Western and the Eastern Mediterranean will significantly reduce during the peak summer season because containment measures, including travel restrictions in destinations outside the EU, government-mandated quarantine periods in the U.K., and less-confident consumer sentiment, will continue to constrain travel demand in Europe, especially to destinations such as Turkey, Egypt, or Morocco. S&P anticipates this will materially affect TUI's customer bookings and that its revenue could decline by up to 50% in 2020 from about €19 billion in 2019.
While the German state provided TUI a €1.8 billion new liquidity facility in April, S&P believes a further facility will be necessary given high macroeconomic uncertainty and unclear customer-booking behavior for this summer.
The negative outlook reflects our view that TUI's capital structure could become unsustainable, absent any material equity injection. It also reflects the risk that the company could deplete its liquidity in the low season in autumn, or even earlier if customer demand falls below our expectation for this summer, should it not obtain further liquidity lines.
Latest Update Moody's
May 2020 – Moody’s downgrades rating from B2 to Caa1. The outlook of TUI AG’s corporate family rating is negative..
TUI's rating reflects the unprecedented disruption of the tourism sector as a result of the coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19). It becomes obvious that TUI's business will remain disrupted even once the lockdowns are lifted. Economic recession, precautionary measures to prevent contagion making travel more complicated and concerns over the potential second wave of the coronavirus will continue to weigh on demand for TUI's products and services. This will result in credit metrics and negative free cash flow generation well below the requirements for the previous rating category.
While Moody's noted the recent measures of realizing liquidity support, additional measures are required to preserve liquidity and improve the capital structure in absence of a significant recovery of the operational activity and negative free cash flow generation.
The negative outlook reflects the uncertainty in regards to the company's ability to preserve a sufficient amount of liquidity given the unprecedented disruption of the tourism sector and the future capital structure once the company returns to business as usual.