Ratings published by independent rating agencies are a key prerequisite for efficient and flexible access to the capital market. They assist debt capital market investors in evaluating the risk situation of companies and their financial instruments.
|Corporate Rating||Standard & Poor's||Moody's|
Latest Update Moody's
January 2021 – Moody’s affirms TUI’s Caa1 rating but updates the outlook to stable from negative.
Moody’s decision to stabilise TUI's rating outlook reflects the sizeable liquidity injection provided by three support packages with a total amount of €4.8 billion. This has largely covered an exceptionally high cashrequirement in fiscal 2020 and provides a significant buffer for potential further cash consumptions in a still highly challenging market environment. The stable outlook reflects the expectation of continued external support in case of the absence of a material recovery of the operating performance, as the coronavirus spreading and travel activity remains highly uncertain in the short term.
Moody's however notes the potential for a medium term recovery of the underlying operating performance and hence further positive rating pressure, in case that the coronavirus outbreak is contained and travel activity resumes to historical levels.
Latest Update Standard & Poor's
June 2020 – Standard & Poor's lowers its long-term corporate credit rating to "CCC+" from "B-" with negative outlook.
S&P expect a steeper contraction in demand for international tourism in 2020, and a slower recovery in 2021 than previously anticipated. Therefore S&P has lowered their global economic forecasts for 2020 and 2021 to reflect the initial extension of lockdowns in major European economies, and a likely slower recovery. Even as many global economies begin a staged reopening of businesses and leisure activities, travel, particularly international, is still one of the worst affected sectors. In S&P’s view, demand for leisure flights to TUI's main destinations in Western and the Eastern Mediterranean will significantly reduce during the peak summer season because containment measures, including travel restrictions in destinations outside the EU, government-mandated quarantine periods in the U.K., and less-confident consumer sentiment, will continue to constrain travel demand in Europe, especially to destinations such as Turkey, Egypt, or Morocco. S&P anticipates this will materially affect TUI's customer bookings and that its revenue could decline by up to 50% in 2020 from about €19 billion in 2019.
While the German state provided TUI a €1.8 billion new liquidity facility in April, S&P believes a further facility will be necessary given high macroeconomic uncertainty and unclear customer-booking behavior for this summer.
The negative outlook reflects our view that TUI's capital structure could become unsustainable, absent any material equity injection. It also reflects the risk that the company could deplete its liquidity in the low season in autumn, or even earlier if customer demand falls below our expectation for this summer, should it not obtain further liquidity lines.