
| Corporate Rating | Fitch | Moody's | Standard & Poor's | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate Rating | Long-term | Fitch | BB | Moody's | Ba3 | Standard & Poor's | BB- |
| Corporate Rating | Outlook | Fitch | stable | Moody's | positive | Standard & Poor's | stable |
Following the initial assignment of a TUI‑rating in February 2025, Fitch has affirmed that BB (stable outlook) rating.
The rating reflects TUI’s leading market position and strong brand recognition in European tourism, along with a balanced capital and liquidity structure. Fitch highlights the diversification benefits of TUI’s vertically integrated business model across hotels, cruises, airlines and tour operations. At the same time, Fitch notes that efficiency initiatives are expected to support gradual margin improvement.
The Stable Outlook reflects expectations of continued EBITDA growth and solid free cash flow generation.
The rating action acknowledges TUI’s FY2025 positve results and Moody’s confident view about further earnings growth.
The change in outlook to positive also considers TUI's new capital allocation framework as well balanced, including a net leverage target below 0.5x over the medium term, improved liquidity and lower leverage, supported by enhanced operating cash flow. The positive outlook also reflects Moody’s expectation that profitability will slightly improve over the next 12-18 months, driven by cost savings in Markets + Airline and trading momentum in Holiday Experiences.
The rating upgrade is based on TUI’s sound operating performance in 2024, exceeding S&P’s base-case expectations, with revenue and EBITDA growing versus 2023. S&P anticipates further earnings growth in 2025, based on solid pricing and summer bookings, as well as meaningful dividends from TUI’s joint ventures. TUI’s free operating cash flow generation after leases turned positive in 2024 and S&P expects it will continue to generate modestly, strengthening liquidity and reducing reliance on its revolving credit facility during the winter season.
The stable outlook reflects S&P’s view that TUI will continue executing its strategic initiatives and that its sizable joint ventures will increase dividend payments, thereby improving scale, and resulting in sustainably higher margins, despite a challenging macroeconomic environment. Absent common dividends, S&P expects this to result in stronger credit metrics.