20 September 2022

FY22 Q4 Pre-Close Trading Update

Prior to entering its close period ahead of reporting its full year results for the twelve months ending 30 September 2022 on 14 December 2022, TUI Group announces the following update on current trading.

Summer 2022 set to close in line with our expectations, later booking pattern continues into Winter with strong ASP

  • Q4 expected to deliver further strong progress - Hotels & Resorts set to deliver its 5th consecutive positive quarter. Cruise and TUI Musement with significant improvement. Markets & Airlines significantly profitable despite airport disruptions

Market & Airlines

  • Overall Summer 2022 programme1 totals 12.9m bookings, an increase of 1.4m since Q3 update, with bookings at 91% of Summer 2019 levels. The key departure months of July and August closed at 94% of Summer 2019 levels
  • ASP continues to hold up strongly at +18% versus Summer 2019, which will help to soften the impact from the current higher inflationary environment
  • UK Summer 2022 cumulative bookings remain +4% ahead of Summer 2019, with booking momentum in Germany and Netherlands well ahead of Summer 2019 levels since our Q3 update
  • Flight disruption costs remain at elevated levels but continued to improve through Q4
  • Winter 2022/23 bookings1 are at an early stage and our current assumption is for a Winter programme close to normalised pre-pandemic levels with the option to flexibly adjust capacity in line with customer demand. We will leverage our flexible and integrated business model to ensure we provide our customers not only with the best winter holiday experience but also the assurance that TUI remains the best choice for holiday travel
  • Against this background, Winter 2022/23 bookings1 stand at 78% of Winter 2018/19 levels with the near departure months of November and December at 81%. To date Winter ASP is higher at 26%
  • As usual, the UK, with 36% of the programme sold, is the most advanced booked at +9% and ASP up +22% versus Winter 2018/19
  • Q1 bookings, which represent a mix of late Summer and early Winter, are 54% sold compared to around 60% in a normalised year
  • As in Summer, we continue to see a trend towards a higher share of short-term bookings for Winter and strong pricing, confirming solid customer demand for holiday travel

Holiday Experiences

  • Hotels & Resorts continues to perform strongly in Q4, with July and August occupancies broadly in line with and average rates above pre-pandemic levels, highlighting the strength of our integrated business model and our strong distribution power. We expect to see continued strong demand for Winter 2022/23 especially in the Canaries and the Caribbean
  • Cruises continues to recover in Q4, with occupancies building strongly and rates achieving 2019 levels. Winter 2022/23 occupancies are developing in line with our expectations at rates above 2019 levels. Short-term bookings continue to represent a large proportion of overall bookings, however, the proportion of mid-term bookings is increasing as customer confidence returns
  • TUI Musement has significantly increased the sale of tours and activities to 6.3m year-to date (1.2m year-to-date prior year)​

TUI Group

  • For financial year 2022, we re-confirm our expectations to return to significant positive underlying EBIT2 and also remain committed to deliver our mid-term ambitions: underlying EBIT to significantly build on FY193, driven by both top line growth and GRP4 benefits and to return to a gross leverage ratio5 of less than 3.0x
  • ESG Update: Sustainability and ambitious ESG standards are a very high priority for the Board and Group Executive Committee. The criteria and approaches of the Global Sustainable Tourism Council (GSTC) are our aspiration and the benchmark for our actions in more and more areas. We are taking a new approach to applying the GSTC sustainability standards to our excursion portfolio. Our aim is to create a broad offer for our customers and lead them to more sustainable excursions. TUI is also pursuing ambitious climate targets to make the agreements of the Paris Climate Agreement and the EU Green Deal a success. TUI has submitted its emissions reduction targets to the Sciene Based Targets Initiative (SBTi) and will transparently document its targets, actions and timeline to SBTi. The sustainability agenda is to be presented after confirmation of the targets by SBTi
  • TUI Group will issue its Annual Report on Wednesday 14 December 2022 and hold a presentation for investors and analysts on the same day. Further details will follow